Oleksandr Tarariko

Climate change intensifies land degradation processes in Ukraine, necessitating the development of specialized information systems to support effective monitoring and management of land resources. This research aims to substantiate and design the structure of a pilot information-analytical web resource “Agrokosmos” for tracking the spatial distribution of desertification and drought phenomena. The methodology employs system analysis of international land degradation monitoring platforms, logical-structural approach to web resource design, semantic analysis of key terms, and investigation of target audience needs in the field of sustainable land management. A hierarchical website structure has been developed, comprising a homepage and ten main sections: institutional and legal framework, general information, methodological and technological approaches, data, spatial distribution of processes, analytical reports, adaptation measures, knowledge base, additional information sources, and news. A semantic core has been formed around twelve thematic clusters, encompassing over one hundred key terms to enhance search-engine visibility. Ten target audience groups have been identified, including scientists, government agencies, agricultural specialists, international organizations, and the general public. The proposed architecture ensures integration of satellite data, geoinformation tools, cartographic materials, and analytical reports within a unified decision support environment. The resulting structure provides a practical foundation for a national desertification monitoring platform, will facilitate Ukraine’s implementation of its obligations under the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, and will enhance drought early warning effectiveness. Future directions include populating the platform with current Earth remote sensing data and developing automated algorithms for identifying areas at risk of degradation

Agroecosystems of Ukraine are experiencing increased impact from climate change and military actions, leading to growing risks of land degradation, desertification, and soil depletion in all natural-climatic zones of the country. Under these conditions, the system of agroecological monitoring becomes crucial, with satellite observations being an integral component that provides both retrospective analysis and operational tracking of the spatial-temporal distribution of negative phenomena. This creates a foundation for improving information support for managing natural and production processes in agriculture and environmental management. The article, based on the report by Corresponding Member of NAAS O.S. Demyanyuk, presents research results conducted within the framework of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences program “Agrocosmos” (“Satellite agroecological monitoring, agroresource management, and forecasting the impact of climate change on agroecosystem productivity”), aimed at developing scientific and methodological support for using satellite monitoring data to solve environmental problems. Satellite indicators of climate change risks and military actions on agroecosystems have been substantiated and identified. Through retrospective analysis of these indicators’ dynamics over a 40-year period, clear trends of climate change and their impact on agroecosystems in the eastern part of the Forest-Steppe were established, and these indicators were tested for monitoring negative phenomena in agricultural landscapes due to the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Identifiers of military actions’ impact on soil cover based on satellite information were established; corresponding map schemes were created using GIS with an assessment of the degree of impact on soil resources in Kharkiv region. To improve information support for agroecological monitoring, particularly regarding the problem of desertification and land degradation processes, the structure of a database for a corresponding information-analytical website has been developed. Based on published sources and conducted research, the high potential of aerospace monitoring data for agroecosystems has been proven for identification of agricultural crops, their classification and mapping, particularly using the vegetation index NDVI, as well as for performing modern dynamic agroecological zoning of agricultural lands according to their suitability for growing agricultural crops with different biological requirements using aerospace monitoring data.

Aim. To determine the patterns of the climate change impact on the transformation of agricultural production and the ecosystem of Ukrainian Polissia in terms of time and space. Methods. Satellite and statistical data for the last 40 years (1982–2022) were used. The mean temperature for the vegetation period was defined by the sum of radiation temperatures of the terrestrial surface, calculated using the data of the infrared range (10.3–11.3; 11.4–12.4 μm) of the high-precision AVHRR radiometer of artificial meteorological Earth's satellites, NOAA, and the precipitation dynamics – using the data of ERA5 ECMWF/Copernicus Climate Change Service. The impact of climate change on the vegetation state and phenological parameters, including the beginning, end, and duration of the vegetation season, was determined by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), obtained using the data of the infrared (0.72–1.1 μm) and red (0.58–0.68 μm) ranges of the AVHRR radiometer on the website of STAR NESDIS NOAA. Crop yields and the dynamics of sown areas were determined by the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The information about the dynamics of the forest cover was obtained using the Global Forest Watch satellite data. To evaluate the impact of climate change on Ukraine's forests, the investigation was conducted on burnt forest areas, using the MCD64A1 6.1 index, developed on the basis of the MODIS satellite data. Results. According to the satellite data, the radiation temperature of the terrestrial surface during the growing period increased by 2.2 ºС on average in the territory of Ukrainian Polissia over the last 40 years. There is a regional difference in the temperature regime observed in the direction from west to east. In the territory of western Polissia, the increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface in recent decades was within the range of 1.2–1.6, and in the central and eastern parts – within 2.3–2.9 ºС. Due to the warming, the duration of the growing period was extended by 21–35 days, mostly because of earlier spring onset. There is a descending trend in the average annual precipitation amount down to 20–30 mm, which is especially notable for central and eastern Polissia. The warming was the reason for the introduction of the crops, new for this region, into the structure of sown areas, especially corn and sunflower, which had a generally positive effect on the vegetation state by the NDVI index, which increased from 0.30 in 1982–1992 to 0.36 in 2012–2022 on average. The crop yield increased accordingly, and according to the statistical data for the recent years, amounted to: corn – 7.0–9.5 t/ha, winter wheat – 4.5–5.0, and sunflower – 1.5–2.0 t/ha, which is close to the level of their yield on chornozem. At the same time, due to climate change and the transformation of agricultural activity, there has been a higher risk of deterioration in the ecological state of typical Polissia landscapes, droughts, and soil degradation. According to the results of the analysis of twenty-two years of the dynamics in forest fires, the largest areas of burnt forests were registered in 2012 (694.30 sq.km), 2015 (1,078.81 sq.km), and 2020 (776.27 sq.km), which demonstrated the increase in fires during the recent decade along with the tendency towards longer fire hazard period. Conclusions. The increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface of the Ukrainian Polissia during the growing period and the lengthening of the growing period created the conditions for corn and sunflower to be introduced into the arable areas, which had a positive impact on the vegetation state index, NDVI. As a result of these transformations both in the sown area of these crops and their yield, Polissia is becoming a new grain-oil belt of Ukraine. Concurrently, there are higher risks associated with maintaining high performance of agroecosystems and the increase in the risks for soil degradation processes, the deterioration of the ecological state of wetlands and forests, as well as drying-out of small rivers and lakes. Balancing the high yield of modern agroecosystems and safe nature management requires systemic measures in adapting the agricultural activity and nature management to new climatic conditions, which requires implementing the management of soil, water, and bio-resources, achieving optimal parameters of fertility for mineral and peaty-swampy soils. Reconstructing current land reclamation systems to optimize water regimes for the agricultural lands and protect typical Polissia ecosystem is needed.

У даній роботі розглядається підхід до прогнозування врожайності кукурудзи на зерно за допомогою нечітких когнітивних карт (FCM) та експертний підхід для опису ступеня впливу одних факторів (концептів) на інші. FCMs – це методологія моделювання, заснована на досвіді. Вона включає в себе основні переваги нечіткої логіки та нейронних мереж. FCM являють собою графічну модель, яка складається із вузлів-концептів, що з’єднані ребрами. Вузли-концепти описують елементи системи, а ребра виражають зв’язки між цими концептами. FCM можна застосовувати в різних сферах, особливо для точного землеробства, моделювання та прогнозування врожайності. FCM також можна застосовувати для моделювання складних систем та використовувати в задачах прогнозування. FCM є ідеальним інструментом для моделювання динамічних систем. Основними перевагами та особливостями запропонованого алгоритму є гнучкість, простота та висока адаптованість до різноманітних умов. У цій роботі для класифікації врожайності кукурудзи було обрано підхід FCM. Ця запропонована методологія може використовувати супутникові та експертні дані для прогнозування врожайності. Розроблена модель FCM складається із вузлів, які представляють основні концепти, що впливають на врожайність, такі як: вміст калію (K), гумусу, фосфору (P), pH, вміст азоту (N), вологи, температура, NDVI (нормалізований диференційний вегетаційний індекс), LAI (індекс листкової поверхні). Калій, фосфор, pH, азот та гумус є експертними даними, а температура, вологість, NDVI і LAI є супутниковими даними. Орієнтовані ребра FCM відображають причинно-наслідкові зв’язки між концептами та врожайністю. Основною метою даного дослідження було визначити рівень врожайності кукурудзи за допомогою нечітких когнітивних карт. Наша модель була застосована для прогнозування класу врожайності між трьома можливими категоріями (низька, середня та висока) для трьох різних експертів. Було показано, що запропонований алгоритм може вирішувати задачу прогнозування врожайності кукурудзи.Слід зазначити, що даний алгоритм можна застосовувати для прогнозу врожайності інших сільськогосподарських культур. Слід зазначити, що даний алгоритм можна застосовувати для прогнозу врожайності інших сільськогосподарських культур.

Aim. To study the effect of climate changes on the performance of cereals. Methods. Remote, statistical, and analytic methods. Climate changes were determined by the sum of radiation temperatures of the earth’s surface, calculated using the data of the infrared range (10.3–11.3; 11.4–12.4 μm) of the high precision radiometer AVHRR of the meteorological satellites of the Earth, NOAA. The effect of climate changes on the state of vegetation, including the phenological parameters, such as the beginning, the end, and the length of the vegetation peri- od, was determined by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained using the data of infrared (0.72–1.1 μm) and red (0.58–0.68 μm) ranges of the abovementioned radiometer. The satellite data are openly accessed on the website of STAR NESDIS NOAA – Satellite Applications and Research of NOAA’s National En- vironmental Satellite Data Information Services of the National Ocean and Atmosphere Research Department of the USA – http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/. The dynamics of СО2 concentration in the air was determined using the satellite data of AIRS/Aqua (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/AIRS3C2M_005/summary), the precipitation dynamics – using the data of ERA5 ECMWF/Copernicus Climate Change Service (https://devel- opers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/ECMWF_ERA5_MONTHLY#description). The association be- tween the performance of cereals and satellite data was found by the method of correlation and regression analysis. Results. Using the satellite data, it was found that in 1982–2021, the sum of radiation temperatures of the earth’s surface reliably increased in the vegetation period (April–September), and the amount of precipitation tended to decrease in the zones of Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe. The highest tempo of warming was observed in the territory of the Steppe. In general, the warming had a positive effect on the state of vegetation, according to NDVI, and on the performance of cereals. However, in the recent decade (2010–2020), the positive effect of the warming on the vegetation state decreased, and according to the NDVI trend, there has been a tendency towards the negative effect of the further increase in the temperature, which is especially remarkable for the Steppe and Forest-Steppe. On the contrary, the warming in the Polissia zone created the conditions for the increase in the performance of agri- cultural cereals. Conclusions. From 1982 till 2021, there was a strong tendency towards the increase in the sum of radiation temperatures of the earth’s surface in the vegetation period and the decrease in the precipitation amount in Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe. According to the NDVI data, due to the warming, the length of the vegeta- tion period increased by 14–21 days on average, which had a positive effect on the vegetation. Since 2010, the acceleration in the warming tempo has been observed. The average annual increase in the sum of the radiation tem- peratures of the earth’s surface in the vegetation period is 15–16 °С – for Polissia, 14–18 °С for the Forest-Steppe, and 18–20 °С for the Steppe. According to this tendency, if the current regularity in the temperature increase in 1982–2021 is preserved in the nearest future, the temperature of the vegetation period will additionally increase, and the average sum of temperatures of the earth’s surface will reach 4000 °С in Polissia, which was notable for the Forest-Steppe in 1982–2021, 4440–4600 °С – in the Forest-Steppe, and up to 5800–5900 °С in the Steppe. In 1982–2000, there was a strong regularity of the positive effect of the warming during the vegetation period both on the vegetation state according to the NDVI index, and the performance of cereals in all three natural climatic zones. However, after 2000, due to the negative effect of high summer temperatures on the crops, the effect of the warming on vegetation considerably decreased, which was especially notable for the Steppe where the increase in NDVI compared to the previous period was on average 9.41 % in 1992–2001, and in 2012–2021 – 1.78 %.

The article presents the historical aspects of developing remote agroecological monitoring. It is shown that in the process of improving satellite sensors, opening access to foreign satellite data, the possibilities and effectiveness of using the results of remote sensing in scientific and environmental protection activities, in the production of safe agricultural products have expanded. The stages of forming scientific and technical program of satellite agro-ecological monitoring «Agrokosmos», the main fundamentals, tasks and results of this research direction are analyzed. The effectiveness of satellite information for determining the structure of agrolandscapes and land use systems, climate change, its impact on the condition of crops and their moisture supply, productivity of grain crops is shown. Methodical approaches to identifying and mapping manifestations of desertification processes, erosive degradation of agricultural land and associated negative trends are considered. It is noted that modern satellite information is an important tool not only for improving the agroecological monitoring system, but also for developing and implementing measures to achieve a neutral level of soil degradation, prevent the development of desertification processes, and adapt to climate change. It has been proven that the satellite agroecological monitoring system needs improvement in terms of more detailed classification of individual elements of agrolandscapes, as well as improvement of algorithms and image processing methods to expand the possibilities of timely using these data to provide management recommendations and prompt adjustment of agricultural technologies. The main directions of further development of the «Agrokosmos» program are presented. An important issue remains the strengthening of the coordination of research works with the scientific institutions of the National Academy of Sciences, the State Space Agency, the development of cooperation with foreign partners within the framework of international projects. The urgent task of improving the information potential of the use of Earth remote sensing data is the creation of a national network of sub-satellite terrestrial agricultural test sites. The effective use of satellite data in management, production and scientific activities in agriculture requires creating an interdepartmental informative and analytical center «Agrokosmos» within the framework of the National Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food.

Issues of quality and diversity of available food, environmental safety and guarantees of sustainable energy supply are becoming critical for the population of urban areas. Part of the urbanized areas cannot be used directly for food production for environmental reasons, but it is quite suitable for the production of energy from biomass. In order to create strategies for processing organic biomass from urban plantations of parks and squares, it is necessary to determine the tools for obtaining and interpreting data on the available and prospective amount of biomass in cities, which was the purpose of our work. Unmanned aerial vehicle studies were conducted at the Botanical Garden of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine using the Slantrange 3P multispectral sensor system from an industrialtype UAV platform. The study of squares and lawns of the city was conducted using an archive of satellite images in the visible range of high resolution — 0.5 m/pixel and a specialized agricultural service EO Browser with a resolution of images of 10 m/pixel. Monitoring of the park using the Slantrange 3P complex, with specialized SlantView software, allowed to identify tree crowns and grass cover, while it was not possible to distinguish vines. The best identification results for the Slantrange complex were obtained for the red and infrared measurement channels. Using satellite monitoring data, the possibility of identifying the biomass of trees and shrubs occurs in drought conditions, when the grass on the lawns suffers more than trees and shrubs, apparently due to the developed root system. It is noted that satellite imagery is usually carried out at different angles and, accordingly, fixed both roofs and partially walls of buildings, and accordingly, such imagery is more suitable for assessing the biomass of promising vertical landscaping with vines.

Aim. To determine the tendencies in the changes in air temperature and their influence on the productivity of crops during the vegetative cycle periods, especially in soil-climatic zones of Ukraine for the 1981–2010 climate normals period. Methods. The analytical and synthetic, statistical, climatic methods, simulation (model of V.P. Dmitrenko “Weather-yield” (Dmitrenko VP et al, 2017, 2010), used to forecast the productivity of grains in the Ukrainian Hy- drometeorological Center since 1970), abstract-logical method. Results. The rising air temperatures were determined throughout the whole vegetative period of growing corn and spring barley over the period of 1981–2010. It was found that this rise in different phases of crop development was of different magnitude and relevance in all regions and soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The reliable changes in the surface air temperature were noted in the phases of the third leaf, panicle emergence, and blossoming of corn in Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and especially Steppe (0.7– 0.8 °С/10 years, 0.8–0.9 °С/10 years and 0.9–1.1 °С/10 years, respectively). During the pre-sowing period, the periods of corn sowing and seedlings, the velocity of changes was twice lower in the whole territory of the country, and during the pe- riods of milky ripeness and middle dough – in the eastern Forest-Steppe and dry Steppe, amounting to 0.4–0.5 °С/10 years. A considerable rise in the temperature during the period of the third leaf, panicle emergence, and blossoming promoted the decrease in the influence of temperature during these phases of crop development, especially in the Steppe (up to 10–15 % in 10 years). Only the rise in the temperature during the pre-sowing period promoted the 3–6 % increase in the whole terri- tory of the country, and during the periods of milky ripeness and middle dough of corn – up to 8 % in 10 years in the Forest- Steppe and Steppe. Generally, the thermal conditions for corn cultivation deteriorated considerably but remained favorable in Polissia, satisfactory – in the Forest-Steppe and northern Steppe, and unsatisfactory – in the south, in the dry Steppe. The most intense changes in the air temperature during the vegetation period of spring barley were noted in the phase of milky ripeness and middle dough in all soil-climatic zones, amounting to 0.8–1.1 °С/10 years. During the sowing period, the phases of the third leaf, stem elongation, and ear formation, they were 0.6–0.7 °С/10 years, and during the pre-sowing period – 0.3– 0.4 °С/10 years. During the spring barley tillering phase, the change in the air temperature was insignificant in the whole territory of the country. A considerable increase in the air temperature was unfavorable for crop cultivation in all the soil- climatic zones of Ukraine during the vegetative cycle of spring barley, especially during the phases of milky ripeness and middle dough, and promoted the decrease in its productivity in Polissia, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe by 5, 7.5 and 10 % in 10 years, respectively. In general, the increase in the air temperature conditioned the deterioration in thermal conditions of cultivating spring barley but they remained favorable in Polissia and Forest-Steppe, and favorable or satisfactory in the Steppe during the pre-sowing period and the vegetative cycle.

Unmanned (remotely controlled) aircrafts (UAVs) are innovative equipment for monitoring fields that are free from a lot of the disadvantages of satellites such as availability, low cost, and high image resolution. However, the quality, reproducibility and suitability of spectral monitoring data of plantations for crop management processes remain topical issues. Since spectral monitoring is a necessary component in the concept of crop management, the development of a methodology for assessing the suitability of remote monitoring spectral data for the calculation of agrochemical practices was the purpose of the work. According to the publications, the dependence of the number of pixels on the values of the intensity of color components for plants and soil is described by the Gaussian distribution. Deviation from such distribution is caused by the imposing of distributions from various objects fixed on a photo. The experimental test was carried out on the basis of wheat, using the results obtained during 2017–2020 when considering the stresses of nutrient deficiency. UAVs with a specialized Slantrange spectral complex with standard Slantview software and an FC200 visible spectrum camera (from the Phantom 2 UAV) were used for monitoring. The investigation found experimental evidence that the pixel distribution of plantations on the example of the wheat crop is described by the Gaussian distribution. It was found that the analysis of the correspondence of the nature of the distribution on the spectral channels, namely the presence of several max peaks that affects the value of the distribution maximum may indicate the presence of foreign inclusions or a transitional stage of vegetation. The suitability of the data can be assessed on the basis of the reference values of the width of the distribution on the spectral channels. This determines the feasibility of introducing in the sets of regular vegetation indices of geographic information systems additional packages that reflect the spectral channels.