Tetiana Deyneka

The article is devoted to the study of the institutional landscape of export activity in Ukraine under martial law, increasing foreign economic risks, and deepening European integration processes. The purpose of the research is to provide a formal and conceptual definition of the category “institutional landscape” and, on this basis, to identify the key institutional characteristics of Ukraine’s export regime.The methodological framework of the study is based on the principles of classical institutionalism and new institutional economics, in particular the theory of transaction costs, legal and contractual institutions, as well as approaches to the analysis of formal and informal rules of economic activity.The institutional landscape of export activity is considered as a structured system of interconnected institutions and institutional arrangements that shape the rules, constraints, and opportunities for exporting goods and services to international markets. The article systematizes the main elements of this landscape, including legislative, customs-tariff, tax, and administrative mechanisms of state regulation. Special attention is paid to the analysis of free, licensed, and quota-based export regimes, as well as the application of minimum export prices as an instrument of non-tariff regulation.The transformation of the institutional environment of exports under wartime conditions is examined, particularly changes in tax and customs legislation, the introduction of the export security regime, and the strengthening of currency and tax control. Using the example of sunflower oil and sunflower seed exports, the study illustrates the specifics of institutional conditions for goods with different levels of value added and varying degrees of state intervention.The processes of harmonization of the national institutional environment with international and European regulatory systems, in particular the HS and the EU CN, are analyzed separately, as they constitute an important prerequisite for Ukraine’s integration into the single economic space of the European Union. It is substantiated that under conditions of armed aggression, institutions perform a dual function: on the one hand, they ensure the adaptation of export activity to crisis challenges, and on the other hand, they act as an active factor in transforming the economic environment. The study concludes that an effective institutional export landscape is critically important for preserving export potential, stabilizing the national economy, and maintaining Ukraine’s position in the international division of labor.

Introduction. The formation of the international business environment is influenced by crises, including the current pandemic crisis in the economy and society, and the way out of this (the current "new normality") should be sought in the application of innovations and funding opportunities. Innovations determine the opportunities for further development of both business entities and the world community as a whole. Goal. Study of innovation and investment behavior of companies in the current state of the international business environment, which manifests itself in a pandemic as economic downturn and destruction of market relations due to extreme instability of commodity, resource, money markets and structural deformation of relations between them. at the national and supranational levels. Methodology. The research was conducted through analysis and synthesis to study changes in the international business environment and innovation and investment behavior of companies in a pandemic crisis; tabular methods for visual presentation of the material. Results. It is shown that the international business environment has changed the pandemic crisis, comparable to the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. They differ primarily in the cause – uneconomic in the first case and economic in the second; combines – non-cyclical nature of origin and the systemic nature of destructive changes in the economy and society. It was found that the challenges and problems of the pandemic crisis have forced organizations to rethink approaches to doing business and the rapid introduction of innovations such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, Internet of Things, process automation tools. The need for digital transformation of business is emphasized, which is an innovative strategy incorporated into the overall long-term development plan of the company, which determines the content of corporate, functional, competitive strategies. It is proved that the preconditions for the spread of digitalization in the activities of other entities are created through the digital strategy implemented by the initiating company – through its relationships with customers, suppliers, competitors. The scenario of recovery of the world economy according to UNCTAD is considered. It was found that the most difficult thing for the transformation of business in a pandemic crisis is to raise funds for innovation.companies suffer heavy losses, which significantly limits investment.

Today, the world is trying to maintain a global tendency in the development of a sustainable economy, responding to various threats, risks and challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic; political instability; wars; the formation of multipolarity of the world; spread of processes of technologization and digitalization, energy imbalances; demographic and environmental problems, etc. The purpose of the article is to study global tendencies in the development of the world economy, the influence of destabilizing factors, the selection of megatrends, which are caused by the formation of a post-industrial mode of production. It is specified that economic megatrends are formed as result of technological revolutions and changes in the mode of production. According to the content of these transformations, the current stage of society’s life represents the beginning of the development of post-industrial relations. This type of technical, economic and socioeconomic relations determines the long-term vectors of economic development, which are based on basic innovations – digital technologies, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, etc. It is stated that big trends, or megatrends, are manifestations of long-term vector changes. However, in the current periods of their objectification, megatrends are influenced by many factors – there is an adjustment of the current dynamics within the framework of the general determining trend of economic development. It is emphasized that the most significant in our time is the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to the weakening of international economic ties and the rupture of supply chains. This was followed almost immediately by the russian military invasion of Ukraine, the consequences of which affect the social (including economic) life not only of European countries, but also of the world in general. The cumulative and repeatedly enhanced due to their simultaneity, the negative impact of these factors significantly adjusts the parameters of global economic trends – temporal, structural and others – at present. It is found that in 2022 there is a decrease in the global economic growth rate to 2.9% compared to the growth rate in 2021 by 5.7%, and, according to the forecast, during 2023-2024 there will be no compensation. In such a situation, inflation will remain high, which could lead to a sharp global recession along with financial crises in some market-based and emerging economies. It is determined that the dynamics of GDP of the pre-pandemic and pre-war period highlighted the outstripping growth rate of the economy in developing countries, compared with the dynamics of GDP of developed countries. The carried out studies have shown that a larger share of world GDP is created in developed countries, and by 2032 the contribution by groups of countries (developed / developing) will not become equal, although it will gravitate towards this parity. The prognosticated paces of global economic growth by region in 2023–2024 are examined. The significant negative impact on the world economy of russia’s invasion of Ukraine in general and in certain regions in particular is emphasized. It is concluded that the harshest consequences of the war would be for Europe and Central Asia. A slowdown in growth this year is forecast in all regions other than the Middle East and North Africa – that is, in those regions where countries can benefit from energy prices. For all regions with a market and a developing economy, the following risks occur: increased geopolitical tensions; rising inflation and food shortages; financial stress and increasing the cost of loans; new outbreaks of COVID-19, etc. It is noted that the need to reduce the negative impact of these risks led to the search by society for such directions of development that would become an impetus for economic growth and restore market activity. In the period of formation of the post-industrial technological mode of production, nano-, bio-, info-, cognitive technologies became decisive. The carried out research provides grounds to assert that the six economies named by the UN (exabyte, welfare, carbon-neutral, closed cycle, biogrowth, impressions) are megatrends, since such transformations are the result of the formation of a post-industrial mode of production – a special type of relations: technical and economic (productive forces) and socioeconomic (production relations).

Introduction. The modern development of society is an extremely complex process that is formed under the influence of numerous factors. It is contradictory, can move from one point of bifurcation to another, undergo numerous changes. Therefore, in order to develop perspective strategies and risk management, society needs a certain analytical and prognostic toolkit - a kind of algorithm for describing the determining trends by which society moves. Megatrends are stable and long-term processes that determine the patterns of formation of interconnected and mutually determined economic, political, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature. Goal. The purpose of the article is to identify conceptual approaches to determining the main trends in the evolution of the global economic system. The tasks of the research include the establishment of the main megatrends that change the life of modern society, the substantiation of the concepts of "megasociety" and "megaeconomy", and the identification of global megatrends in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Methodology. Scientific research was carried out using analysis and synthesis in order to study the main trends in the evolution of the global economic system; graphic methods for visual representation of the material. The results. It was found that megatrends are stable and long-term processes that determine the regularities of the formation of interconnected and mutually determined economic, political, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature. The main megatrends according to J. Naisbit are considered. The concept of "megasociety" is defined as a manifestation of a set of political, economic, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature, which is gradually being built under the influence of megatrends. It has been found that nowadays the main trend in the field of political relations of society is the trend of changing the world order, i.e. the process of systemic transformation that was caused by the war unleashed by Russia in the center of Europe on the territory of Ukraine. The processes of formation of a multipolar model of the world order are developing. It is noted that multipolarity is essentially consistent with regionalization. It was determined that globalization is a natural phase of the world historical process, during which the degree of interdependence of countries and mesoeconomic structures periodically changes. This process constantly acquires a new quality, changes in the forms of embodiment of its essence, but does not disappear and does not lose the status of a megatrend in the development of humanity. It has been argued that global megatrends in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution include technological progress; climate change, scarcity of resources; demographic changes; changes in economic power; acceleration of urbanization. During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a fundamentally new system of production is being built - smart production, which corresponds to the smart economy - an innovative, knowledge-based, intelligent management system. The trend of greening the life of society (greening of consumption, production, technologies, economy, etc.) is considered, which involves the development and implementation by the world community of systemic measures for the perfection of nature management.

It has been substantiated that digitalization is a driver of the transformation of employment in different countries.The degree of formation of the digitalized labor market by groups of countries with different levels of per capita income has been studied. It is proved that the use of digital technologies by the vast majority of companies and the economically active population simplifies the procedure of job creation, giving the opportunity to work via the Internet within the so-called “on-demand economy”. With the high degree of implementation of digital, information and communication technologies, the share of employees in the service sector is growing in the majority of countries. It is stated that the degree of digitalization of the labor market is uneven in the world. The introduction of modern technologies in high-income countries allows the population to fully realize the intellectual and creative potential, finding a job in the most efficient sector of the economy – the high-tech and knowledge-intensive services. Despite the rapid spread of digital technologies and the rapid growth of employment in the service sector in the upper-middle-income countries, the level of digital transformation of the labor market is much lower than in the high-income countries. Nowadays, there is a digital divide between these groups of countries, although, with the effective policies of governments in the upper-middle-income countries, there is a high probability of achievement of indicators of countries that are digital leaders. The trend of gradual digitalization of the services sector is also observed in the lower-middle-income countries. It is noted that the low prevalence of information and communication technologies in low-income countries makes it impossible for the population of these countries to join the global digitalized labor market. A set of measures has been systematized to harmonize the policies of governments of different countries in the field of labor relations, which are being transformed under the influence of global digitalization. Keywords: digital technologies, digitalization, employment, global digitalized labor market, high-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, low-income countries, upper-middle-income countries. JEL Classification F66, J24, J40, О33 Formulas: 5; fig.: 4, table.: 0; bibl.: 26.

It was ascertained that the global status of a country is determined by a set of its characteristics as an entity of international relations identifying the place it occupies among other countries over a certain historical period of time. The global status is defined as the relative position of countries in the system of international relations. The main factors that determine the global status of countries are economic development; achievements in science, technology and innovation; development of social spheres (health care, education, social protection); the outcome of distributing and exercising power within the state (domestic policy) as well as between states (foreign policy); the effectiveness of institutions; and governance efficiency in the field of environmental management. It is proved that the global status of countries depends primarily on how effectively each of its spheres functions in terms of the interests of society’s development. At the same time, it depends on the synergistic effect — the coordinated action of all components of the socio-natural system (aggregate endogenous factor) and the degree of the country inclusion in the system of modern international relations, which is largely due to globalisation (exogenous factor). It is stated that the country’s acquisition of a different global status compared to the previous one reflects the status dynamics. That means a change in the roles played by countries in the system of international relations, i.e. the process of transforming their behavior on the world stage. These starting points of the study of the place and role of individual countries in the modern globalized world became the basis for the analysis of Ukraine’s position (by areas of activity and in general). The global status of Ukraine is defined and interpreted through correlation with the criteria derived from the theory of world-system analysis. Based on these methodological principles, modern problems have been identified and the possibility of further development of Ukraine has been assessed. Keywords: world economy, global status of countries, problems and contradictions of social development, socio-natural system, globalisation. JEL Classification B41, F62, F63, F64, F68 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 27.

The article examines the vector and structural changes in the modern world, caused by exogenous and endogenous factors and identified on the basis of determining the countries status taking into account the processes of changing their positions according to the group affiliation (hegemonic countries, applicant countries, «third world» countries, as well as other countries which gravitate to the world vanguard or rearguard ones). The proposed methodology of research into the countries global status is based on a comprehensive approach to the analysis of socio-natural systems, presented as a combination of economic, political, innovative, social and spiritual spheres, as well as the sphere of functioning of institutions and the sphere of human interaction with nature. The k-means clustering and the fuzzy logic apparatus were used to find out the vector and structural changes taking place in a globalized society. The analysis is based on processing the country data by the following indicators: the KOF Globalization Index, the Legatum Prosperity Index, the Global Competitiveness Index, the Global Innovation Index, the Human Development Index, the Fragile States Index, and the Environmental Performance Index (2009—2018). They were selected as the attributes, the set of which allows to distinguish clusters. The countries were clustered according to the components of their socio-natural systems. According to the Index of Global Status of Countries, the place that belongs to the subjects of international relations was estimated and their status was identified. On this basis, the differences in the development of the countries were detected. Significant differences in the positioning of states in the globalized world were objectified. The conditions of the formation of countries global status and the causes of the status dynamics were revealed. The fact of asymmetry, polarization and inequality progression was proved. It was demonstrated that the study of vector and structural changes occurring in the world economic system and globalized society extends the scientific notion about the present day systemic contradiction of the post-industrial and post-capitalist eras of the globalized world being formed.

Метою дослідження є визначення світових тенденцій нагромадження багатства й виявлення асиметрій цього процесу на рівні країн. Методика дослідження. Застосовано такі загальнонаукові та спеціальні методи дослідження: аналізу та синтезу, узагальнення, прогнозування. Результати. Визначено, що генеральною тенденцією є зростання світового багатства, однак за уповільнення темпів його нагромадження. Тренди, що проявляються у структурі світової економіки, є такими: розвинені країни створюють переважну частину вартості товарів та послуг кінцевого використання, однак у країнах, що розвиваються, темпи зростання національного багатства вищі. Установлено, що залежність між нагромадженим і використовуваним у країнах багатством, з одного боку, та глобалізацією, з іншого, є системним трендом. 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РОЛЬ НАЦІОНАЛЬНИХ ЕКОНОМІК У СТВОРЕННІ СВІТОВОГО БАГАТСТВА DOI: http://doi.org/10.37734/2409-6873-2019-3-10

The study of the place and role of countries in the system of modern international relations is due to the need to identify asymmetries and contradictions that are inherent in a globalizing society. The paper is aimed at determining the global status of countries and to interpreting the present state of their positioning. Summarizing the scientific principles that form the idea of the state of the global society and options for its possible transformation confirms the relevance of the analysis on this issue. The paper presents an approach to the parametric estimation of the global status of countries, the necessity of which is due to the unresolved problem in the thematic field of these scientific studies. The methodological basis for determining the global status of countries is the synthesis of the effects of the internal factors of the national systems development by the spheres (economic, technological, social, spiritual and cultural, political, as well as the functioning of state institutions, and natural resource management), the synergistic effect of the interdependence of all components of such social and natural complexes (the effects of the aggregated endogenous factor) and the effect of globalization (the exogenous factor). By an aggregate assessment of the situation, the status of countries reflects the current picture of the world and the configuration of forces in the system of modern international relations and is also considered as a functional transformation of the globalized world. The method of scientific analysis is agglomerative clustering, conducted with a software algorithm and implemented in Python. An empirical analysis is based on data from international organizations for 2018. The analysis involves data from 142 countries. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves the fact of the modern world asymmetry, which is a serious challenge to a globalized society. At the same time, the emergence of asymmetry is a warning; a signal of the existence of a threat of systemic contradictions on a global scale. Therefore, asymmetries contain not only the potential of destruction but also the potential for a qualitatively better restructuring of the world. Taking into account this fact and continuous monitoring of changes based on the assessment of the global status of countries allow to identify the options for the future development of civilization and to prevent such negative phenomena as global problems, risks, crises and others, including the global catastrophe. Keywords: globalization, globalized society, the global status of countries, country positioning, contradiction, asymmetry.