Changbo Qin

As bisphenol A (BPA) has gradually become restricted in production scenarios, the ecological risk level of its main replacement chemicals, i.e., bisphenol S (BPS) and bisphenol F (BPF), should be noted. To overcome the limitations of toxicity data, two kinds of in silico toxicology models (quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) and interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models) were used to predict enough toxicity data for multiple species. The accuracy of the coupled in silico toxicology models was verified by comparing experimental and predicted data results. Reliable predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) of 8.04, 35.2, and 34.2 μg/L were derived for BPA, BPS, and BPF, respectively, using species sensitivity distribution (SSD). Accordingly, the ecological risk quotient (RQ) values of BPA, BPS, and BPF for aquatic organisms were assessed in 32 major Chinese surface waters; they ranged from nearly 0 to 1.86, but were <0.1 in most cases, which indicated that the overall ecological risk level of BPA and its alternatives was low. However, in some cases, the ecological risks posed by BPA alternatives have reached equivalent levels to those posed by BPA (e.g., Liuxi River, Taihu Lake, and Pearl River), which requires further attention. This study provides evidence that the application of coupled in silico toxicology models can effectively predict toxicity data for new chemicals, avoiding time-consuming and laborious animal experiments. The main findings of this study can support environmental risk assessment and management for new chemicals that lack toxicity data.

Assessing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality, human footprint, and coupling coordination between two systems in continuous cycles and on national scales is of great significance to maintaining biodiversity and sustainable development. This study took China as an example, based on land-use data from 2000 to 2020, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs—Habitat Quality (InVEST-HQ) model and the human footprint framework, coupling trend analysis methods such as Theil–Sen Median Analysis, Mann–Kendall Test, and Grid Transition Matrix (GTM) Method and combining the four-quadrant model and the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality, human footprint, and CCDM in China for 21 consecutive years and the response relationship between the two systems of habitat quality and human footprint. The results show that the land cover change area from 2000 to 2020 accounted for 4.2% of the total area. Both habitat quality and human footprints exhibit apparent spatial heterogeneity along the “Hu Line” and generally fall into two evolutionary stages: “degradation–improvement”. The proportions of degradation and improvement were 14.37% and 8.36%, respectively, and the mutation point was in the year 2013; the average human footprint increased by 16.75%, and the increased and decreased area proportions were 63.40% and 21.53%, respectively. The mutation occurred in 2014. The right side of the “Hu Line” primarily hosts areas with high values of the coordinated coupling index of human footprints and habitat quality systems. The four quadrants generally have the following characteristics: “quadrant IV on the right is dominant, quadrants II and III on the left are dominant, and quadrant I is located in the transition zone of the ‘Hu Line’”. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) and human footprints have a weak, nonlinear “inverted U-shaped” relationship. This study provides compelling evidence for the spatiotemporal evolution and coupling relationship between habitat quality and human footprint in China, provides scientific decision-making support for biodiversity protection and sustainable economic development, and maintains the bottom line of ecological security for a beautiful China.

Rapidly predicting and revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of land-use changes in carbon storage within megacities under different scenarios is crucial to achieving sustainable development. In this study, Jinan City (JNC) is taken as the study area, and the Markov-FLUS-InVEST model is utilized to predict and analyze the spatiotemporal variation in carbon storage in 2030 under three scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (S1), the ecological conservation scenario (S2), and the economic development scenario (S3). The drivers of carbon storage changes were identified using an optimal parameter-based geographic detection (OPGD) model. The findings indicate that (1) land use from 2010 to 2018 shows a trend of continuous expansion of construction land and reduction in arable land. (2) The main types of carbon pools were cropland, forest, and grassland, accounting for more than 96% of the total amount. Carbon storage showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2018, and the main type of carbon pool that decreased was cropland. The center of gravity of carbon storage increases and decreases was located in the southern Lixia District, and the center of gravity of increase and decrease moved to the southwest by 3057.48 m and 1478.57 m, respectively. (3) From 2018 to 2030, the reductions in carbon stocks were 3.20 × 10⁶ t (S1), 2.60 × 10⁶ t (S2), and 4.26 × 10⁶ t (S3), and the carbon release was about 9 times (S1), 4 times (S2), and 10 times (S3) that of the carbon sink. (4) The contribution of slope (A2) ∩ nighttime light index (B6) and elevation (A1) ∩ nighttime light index (B6) to the regional heterogeneity of carbon stocks was the largest among the interaction drivers. To sum up, this study deepens the simulation of spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon storage under land-use changes in megacities and the related driving mechanism, which can provide the basis for scientific decision-making for cities to conduct territorial spatial planning and ecological protection and restoration.

As a developing country, China is facing serious water pollution and scarcity, which indicates the need for integrated water-resource and environmental regulations. Zoning policies have undergone significant advancements to enhance water-resource utilization in China. However, conflicts and overlaps still exist among these policies. To integrate these zoning policies and regulations, the “Three Lines One Permit” (TLOP) water-environment policy was formulated as a new framework, which included the goal for water quality, upper limits on water-resource utilization, and a permit list. This study presents the main achievements of the TLOP as a case-study in Jinan. The territories of Jinan were divided into 158 water-environment control-units (WECUs) and classified into two types of protected zones, three types of pollution-control zones, and ordinary zones. The total maximum pollutant-loads in the 158 WECUs, and 138 townships were calculated. The water-resource-utilization indicator values and ecological demand of key rivers were specified. The permit lists for the water environment at macroscale, mesoscale, and microscale were compiled from four perspectives: spatial constraints, emissions control, risk prevention, and resource utilization. Finally, suggestions were proposed to promote a more scientific and efficient TLOP policy to enhance human–water harmony.

The United Nations and scholars called for more attention and efforts for cleaner water and water sustainability. This study established a water sustainability evaluating method framework, including indicators, goals, and methods and performs provincial and city−level assessments as case studies. The framework involves six fields, surface water quality, marine environmental quality, water−soil−agriculture, water infrastructure, water conservation, aquatic ecology, water−efficient use, and pollutant emission reduction. The methods innovatively integrate multi fields and concerns of water sustainability while providing a goal−oriented evaluation and implementing the United Nations’ call for the refinement and clarification of SDGs. China’s overall water sustainability was evaluated as 0.821 in 2021, and have performed well in surface water quality, sea quality, water conservation, and aquatic ecology fields while performing poorly in the water−soil−agriculture field. The overall strategy, policy, and action for water sustainability could be developed based on the evaluation. The water sustainability evaluation presented the regional and field/indicator differentiations. It is necessary to implement regionally classified policies and differentiated management for sustainable water development. The correlation analysis with socioeconomic factors implies the complicated and intimate interaction between socioeconomic development and water sustainability while revealing that development stages and the inherent conditions of natural ecology and water sources bring about the differentiations. A comprehensive evaluation of water sustainability may be three−dimensional, involving water quality and ecology, development related to water, and water resources and utilization.

Currently, an interactive environmental planning analysis system platform based on " Three Lines One Permit " (TLOP) is being developed to support environmental planning, construction project approval, and the application of TLOP outcome data in Guangzhou. The main objective is to provide governments, businesses and the public with environmental planning analysis tools to determine the site of construction projects. The platform is using the system architecture of the browser and server. Its core functions are interactive environmental planning analysis tool for construction project and the results display tool supporting map viewing. It provides users with a large number of detailed geospatial data and TLOP results data access and environmental planning analysis functions. This article describes the system architecture and implementation of the system platform and has a case study illustrating the system functionality. At present, the platform has been deployed and trial-operated. The content of the analysis framework is constantly expanding. This promotes the matching of environmental planning and analysis with local conditions. This will implement the application of TLOP and improve the efficiency of project construction and the level of ecological environment planning and management.

This paper describes a multi-region computable general equilibrium model for analyzing the effectiveness of measures and policies for mitigating North China’s water scarcity with respect to three different groups of scenarios. The findings suggest that a reduction in groundwater use would negatively affect economic growth and household incomes. A planned water-transfer project would improve economic development and reduce the over-exploitation of local water resources, while water demand management policies would improve water-use efficiency through reallocating water to those sectors having a higher marginal product value. Several important policy implications are drawn from these findings.

This paper presents a static computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy with water as an explicit factor of production. This model is used to assess the broad economic impact of a policy based on water demand management, using water tax charges as a policy-setting tool. It suggests that imposing water taxes can redistribute sectoral water use and lead to shifts in production, consumption, value added, and trade patterns. Another important finding is that water taxes imposed on the agricultural sector drive most of the effects.