Joshua D. Larsen

Public supply water withdrawals represent 14% of all withdrawals in the conterminous United States (CONUS), supplying approximately 87% of the population with fresh water. Deliveries for public water supply are crucial for associating water use amounts with populations because they often differ from total withdrawals due to wholesales, transfers, losses, and other factors. Understanding these differences helps identify the drivers for each type of delivery. The goal of this study was to compile all available public water supply delivery data for the CONUS and develop a data‐driven model to estimate deliveries for all water service areas within the CONUS. Annual deliveries were estimated between 2010 and 2020, encompassing total water deliveries; combined commercial, industrial, and institutional deliveries (CII); and domestic deliveries. Data were compiled for 2,744 water service areas to produce the most comprehensive public water supply delivery data set for the CONUS to date. Three ensemble modeling approaches were developed to estimate total, CII, and domestic per capita (DPC) deliveries using a gradient boosted regression tree modeling approach. Estimates of daily domestic and CII per capita deliveries were generated from these models for approximately 18,800 water service areas, covering most public water systems in the CONUS. Domestic delivery was found to be lowest in the midwestern region and higher in the southern and southwest regions of the United States. Results indicate that climate and land use can be associated with regional differences in DPC delivery. Population metrics and land use were identified as significant contributors to CII delivery estimates.

This study evaluates the potential water availability in Barka Slough and the effects of changing hydrological conditions on the aquatic habitat of five protected species. Barka Slough is a historically perennial wetland at the downstream western end of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). A previously published hydrologic model of the SACVW for 1948–2018 was extended to include 2019–2021 and then modified to simulate the future years of 2022–2051. Two models simulating the future years of 2022–2051 were constructed, each with different climate inputs: (1) a repeated historical climate and (2) a 2070-centered Drier Extreme Warming climate (2070 DEW). The model with the 2070 DEW climate had warmer temperatures and an increase in average annual precipitation driven by larger, albeit more infrequent, precipitation events than the model with the historical climate. Simulated groundwater pumpage resulted in cumulative groundwater storage depletion and groundwater-level decline in Barka Slough in both future models. The simulations indicate that Barka Slough may transition from a perennial to an ephemeral wetland. Streamflow, stream disconnection, and depth to groundwater are key habitat metrics for federally listed species in Barka Slough. Future seasonal conditions for each metric are more likely to affect federally listed species’ habitats under 2070 DEW climatic conditions. Future seasonal streamflow volume may negatively impact unarmored threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni) and tidewater goby (Eucyclogobis newberryi) habitats. Future seasonal stream disconnection may negatively impact the unarmored threespine stickleback habitat. Future groundwater-level decline may negatively impact Gambel’s watercress (Nasturtium gambelii) and La Graciosa thistle (Cirsium scariosum var. loncholepis) habitats and could influence the ability to use Barka Slough as a restoration or reintroduction site for these species. Results from this study can be used to inform water management decisions to sustain future groundwater availability in the SACVW.

An agricultural water use package has been developed for MODFLOW 6 using the MODFLOW Application Programming Interface (API). The MODFLOW API Agricultural Water Use Package (API‐Ag) was based on the approach to simulate irrigation demand in the MODFLOW‐NWT and GSFLOW Agricultural Water Use (AG) Package. The API‐Ag Package differs from the previous approach by implementing new features and support for additional irrigation providers. New features include representation of deficit and over‐irrigation, Multi‐Aquifer Well and Lake Package irrigation providers, and support for structured, vertex, and unstructured grid models. Three example problems are presented that demonstrate how the API‐Ag Package improves representation of highly managed systems and are further used to validate the irrigation demand and delivery formulations. Irrigation volumes simulated in the three example problems show excellent agreement with the MODFLOW‐NWT AG Package.

FloPy is a Python package for creating, running, and post‐processing MODFLOW‐based groundwater flow and transport models. FloPy functionality has expanded to support the latest version of MODFLOW (MODFLOW 6) including support for unstructured grids. FloPy can simplify the process required to download MODFLOW‐based and other executables for Linux, MacOS, and Windows operating systems. Expanded FloPy capabilities include (1) full support for structured and unstructured spatial discretizations; (2) geoprocessing of spatial features and raster data to develop model input for supported discretization types; (3) the addition of functionality to provide direct access to simulated output data; (4) extension of plotting capabilities to unstructured MODFLOW 6 discretization types; and (5) the ability to export model data to shapefiles, NetCDF, and VTK formats for processing, analysis, and visualization by other software products. Examples of using expanded FloPy capabilities are presented for a hypothetical watershed. An unstructured groundwater flow and transport model, with several advanced stress packages, is presented to demonstrate how FloPy can be used to develop complicated unstructured model datasets from original source data (shapefiles and rasters), post‐process model results, and plot simulated results.

Hydrologic and geophysical data were collected to support updates to an existing groundwater-flow model of Hinkley Valley, California, in the Mojave Desert about 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. These data provide information on predevelopment (pre-1930) water levels, groundwater recharge, and selected hydrologic properties of aquifer materials.A predevelopment groundwater-level map, drawn using water-level measurements from 48 wells collected as early as 1918, showed groundwater movement from recharge areas along the Mojave River to evaporative discharge areas near the margin of Harper (dry) Lake in Water Valley. During predevelopment conditions, depth to water ranged from near land surface along the Mojave River to above land surface near Harper (dry) Lake, consistent with flowing wells in Water Valley at that time. Depths to water in much of Hinkley Valley downgradient from the Lockhart fault were less than 20 feet below land surface. By 2017, water-level declines as a result of agricultural pumping, were as much as 60 feet near the Hinkley compressor station.Areal recharge from infiltration of precipitation on the valley floor is negligible. Average annual recharge as infiltration of runoff from upland drainages to Hinkley and Water Valleys averages 64.7 acre-feet per year. In most years recharge does not occur; in years when it occurs, recharge to Hinkley Valley is typically about 296 acre-feet. In contrast, average recharge as infiltration of streamflow from the Mojave River from 1931 to 2015 was between 13,400 and 17,100 acre-feet per year; in some years recharge from the Mojave River exceeded 100,000 acre-ft. Estimates of predevelopment groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap and groundwater discharge to Harper (dry) Lake ranged from 570 to 1,900 and 820 to 2,460 acre-feet per year, respectively; at the time of this study in 2017, groundwater movement through Hinkley Gap was estimated to be about 83 acre-feet per year.Hydraulic-conductivity values estimated from slug-test data for 95 monitoring wells ranged from less than 0.1 to 680 feet per day (ft/d); values generally decreased with depth. Median hydraulic-conductivity values calculated from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data for Mojave River alluvium and near-shore lake deposits were 73 and 11 ft/d, respectively; median hydraulic-conductivity values for locally derived alluvium and weathered bedrock were 6 and 2 ft/d, respectively. Hydraulic-conductivity values, estimated from NMR data for formerly saturated deposits overlying the 2017 water table, were as high as 300 ft/d near the Hinkley compressor station. Downgradient from the Hinkley compressor station, formerly saturated deposits had hydraulic-conductivity values of about 150 ft/d, which were higher than values in saturated material. Coarse-textured, permeable material in formerly saturated deposits above the 2017 water table may have allowed groundwater, released from the Hinkley compressor station that may have contained Cr(VI), to move rapidly downgradient.The Lockhart fault is an impediment to groundwater flow within Hinkley Valley. Groundwater-flow directions from horizontal point-velocity probe data were deflected to the west on the upgradient side of the fault compared to the nominal direction of groundwater flow estimated from water-level data. Younger groundwater was present on the upgradient and downgradient sides of the fault, and older groundwater with unadjusted carbon-14 ages as old as 5,650 years before present was in water from wells within splays of the Lockhart fault, consistent with limited groundwater movement across the fault. As a result, groundwater and Cr(VI) released from the Hinkley compressor station moved to the northwest along the downgradient side of the fault.Coupled well-bore flow and depth-dependent water-quality data show water from wells C-01 and IW-03 within the Q4 2015 (October–December 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume was yielded from thin layers within the aquifer that are composed of well-sorted lake-margin (beach) deposits that likely have high lateral and longitudinal connectivity. Collectively, data show highly permeable deposits above the regional water table and thin permeable deposits within saturated portions of the upper aquifer that may have conducted groundwater and Cr(VI) downgradient when releases from the Hinkley compressor station first occurred.

Following the advancement of high-performance computing and sensor technology and the increased availability of larger climate and land-use data sets, hydrologic models have become more sophisticated. Instead of simple boundary conditions, these data sets are incorporated with the aim of providing more accurate insights into hydrologic processes. Integrated surface-water and groundwater models are developed to represent the most important processes that affect the distribution of water in hydrologic systems. GSFLOW is an integrated hydrologic modeling software that couples surface-water processes from PRMS and groundwater processes from MODFLOW and simulates feedbacks between both components of the hydrologic system. Development of GSFLOW models has previously required multiple tools to separately create surface-water and groundwater input files. The use of these multiple tools, custom workflows, and manual processing complicates reproducibility and confidence in model results. Based on a need for rapid, reproduceable, and robust methods, we present two example problems that showcase the latest updates to pyGSFLOW. The software package, pyGSFLOW, is an end-to-end data processing tool made from open-source Python libraries that enables the user to edit, write input files, run models, and postprocess model output. The first example showcases pyGSFLOW’s capabilities by developing a streamflow network in the Russian River watershed with an area of 3,850 km² located on the coast of northern California. A second example examines the effects of model discretization on hydrologic prediction for the Sagehen Creek watershed with an area of 28 km², near Lake Tahoe, California, in the northern Sierra Nevada.

The Lucerne Valley is in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert and is about 75 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. The Lucerne Valley groundwater basin encompasses about 230 square miles and is separated from the Upper Mojave Valley groundwater basin by splays of the Helendale Fault. Since its settlement, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, industrial, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal from pumping has exceeded the amount of water recharged to the basin, causing groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between 1917 and 2016 in the center of the basin. The continued withdrawal has resulted in an increase in pumping costs, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence near Lucerne Lake. Although the volume of pumping has declined in recent years, there is concern that new agricultural growth and limits on imported water will continue to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system.To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the Mojave Water Agency to develop a better understanding of the Lucerne Valley hydrogeologic system and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development in the Lucerne Valley. The objectives of this study were to (1) improve the understanding of the aquifer system, (2) improve the understanding of subsidence in the basin, and (3) incorporate the understanding into a groundwater-flow model that can be used to help manage the groundwater resources in the Lucerne Valley. The model developed for this study covers the period of 1942–2016 and can help evaluate various proposed water-management scenarios during different climatic and hydrologic conditions.The aquifer system consists of a shallow aquifer, a confining unit, and middle and lower aquifers. These layered water-bearing units were identified based on geologic units of the mostly unconsolidated sediments and hydrologic properties. These alluvial deposits consist of clay, silt, sand, and gravel; some places also contain clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Several faults act, at least in part, as barriers to groundwater flow on the eastern, southern, and western edges of the basin. Present-day natural recharge is primarily from the infiltration of runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the south; however, stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the middle of the Lucerne Valley was older than about 10,000 years and probably was recharged as infiltration from streams draining the mountains in the Mojave Desert to the north, which probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. The annual average natural recharge for 1942–2016, estimated by a Basin Characterization Model, was about 635 acre-feet per year; the average amount of treated wastewater effluent transferred to the Lucerne Valley for artificial recharge annually ranged from about 1,500 to 4,000 acre-feet per year during 1980–2016. Pumpage estimates for 1942–2016 ranged from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1942 to about 18,300 acre-feet in 1984. The total cumulative amount of groundwater removed from the basin by pumping between 1942 and 2016 was estimated to be about 700,000 acre-feet, which was about 10 times greater than the cumulative amount of recharge to the entire Lucerne Valley groundwater basin. Before groundwater development, the direction of groundwater flow was from the southern part of the basin northward to discharge areas near Lucerne Lake, where it discharged through springs along the Helendale Fault and by evapotranspiration. Since the early 1900s, groundwater-level declines have mostly eliminated the areas where natural discharge occurred and exceeded 100 feet in the middle of the basin between the early 1950s and mid-1990s, and as much as 25 feet near the margins from about the mid-1950s to 2000s. A decrease in the rate of pumping after the mid-1990s lessened the hydraulic stress on the middle and lower aquifers and enabled hydraulic heads in the middle of the basin to recover slightly as groundwater near the margins of the basin moved toward the pumping depression. Although trends in groundwater levels in the center of the basin have reversed since the mid-1990s, levels at the basin margins continue to decline as the movement of groundwater from the margins fills the pumping depression and gradually flattens the groundwater table throughout the basin.The long-term extraction of groundwater and associated dewatering of the fine-grained sediments present within the aquifer system has resulted in aquifer compaction and consequently land subsidence, primarily near Lucerne Lake. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data shows that almost 11 inches of land subsidence has occurred south of Lucerne Lake between April 1992 and November 2009; less subsidence occurred elsewhere in the basin during this period. This differential land subsidence has caused fissures and cracks in the ground surface, which have buckled the pavement and undercut roads in several locations.The Lucerne Valley Hydrologic Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater modeling software One Water Hydrologic Model to represent the hydrologic conditions and stresses during 1942–2016. The model has a uniform grid of approximately 92 acres per cell (2,000 feet by 2,000 feet) and has four layers representing the water-bearing units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicated that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 465,000 acre-feet from 1942 to 2016. The model simulated as much as 7.5 feet (90 inches; 2,286 millimeters) of aquifer compaction, which indicates the extensive fine-grained deposits and measured subsidence near Lucerne Lake.

The San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW) is located in western Santa Barbara County, about 15 miles south of Santa Maria and 55 miles north of Santa Barbara, California. The SACVW is about 135 square miles and encompasses the San Antonio Creek Valley groundwater basin; the SACVW is separated from adjacent groundwater basins by the Casmalia and Solomon Hills to the north, and the Purisima Hills to the south. At the western, downstream part of the valley, uplifted, consolidated rocks cause groundwater to discharge at land surface at Barka Slough. Since the late 1800s, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, military, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal by pumping exceeded the amount of water replenishing the aquifer system during water years 1948–2018, causing groundwater-level declines of more than 150 feet in parts of the valley and reducing base flow at Barka Slough. Reliance on groundwater for agricultural water use (primarily for the irrigation and frost protection of vineyards, and fruit and berry crops) continues to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system.Through a cooperative agreement, the Santa Barbara County Water Agency and Vandenberg Space Force Base invited the U.S. Geological Survey to address declines in groundwater levels, develop a better understanding of the hydrogeologic system, and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development of the San Antonio Creek Valley groundwater basin within the encompassing San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). The objectives of this study were to (1) refine the hydrogeologic framework of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed, (2) quantify the hydrologic budget of the valley, and (3) develop hydrologic modeling tools to evaluate and aid in managing the groundwater resource. This report focuses on the first and second objectives to construct a hydrogeologic framework and characterize the historical and present-day hydrologic conditions of the SACVW during water years 1948–2018. As part of the second objective, work included quantifying the hydrologic budget and evaluating the hydrogeologic system using a combination of existing data and geologic and hydrologic data collected for this study.The groundwater-flow system in the SACVW consists of five hydrogeologic units. These separate water-bearing units were identified based on hydrogeologic properties, such as sediment grain size, vertical-head differences in multiple-depth, monitoring-well sites, long-term groundwater level responses to pumping and climate, and the chemical character of groundwater and groundwater age in the mostly semi-consolidated to unconsolidated basin-fill sediments. The hydrogeologic units that comprise the different aquifers vary in their lithologic composition. The upper and lower aquifers (upper Paso Robles Formation, and lower Paso Robles Formation and Careaga Sandstone, respectively) are relatively coarse grained and are comprised of sand, gravel, and clay; the middle confining unit (the middle Paso Robles Formation) is relatively fine grained and is comprised of primarily clay, silt, and sand. The Pezzoni-Casmalia and Los Alamos faults, which are inferred to transect the SACVW between the western and eastern areas of the valley floor, do not appear to substantially affect the groundwater system.Present-day recharge to the study area occurs primarily as infiltration from precipitation and streams in the upland areas of the Casmalia Hills and Solomon Hills, and along the main channel of San Antonio Creek. Reported estimates of annual natural recharge during water years 1948–2018 generally ranged from about 5,000 acre-feet to more than about 30,000 acre-feet. Stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the lower aquifer is old and probably was recharged as infiltration from precipitation and streams in the eastern upland areas of the Solomon Hills; however, the infiltration and recharge from these sources probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. Anthropogenic recharge, from sources such as return flow from agricultural irrigation, municipal water systems, and wastewater effluent, was estimated to range from about 600 acre-feet in 1948 to about 6,600 acre-feet in 2018. The average annual amount of groundwater removed from the SACVW by pumping during 1948–2018 was estimated to be about 17,200 acre-feet per year, increasing from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1948 to about 32,600 acre-feet in 2018. Estimates of annual pumpage generally exceeded estimates of annual recharge beginning in the mid-1970s and continuing through 2018. The predominant direction of groundwater flow under historical and present-day conditions was from the eastern uplands in the Solomon Hills to the west along San Antonio Creek to the discharge area in Barka Slough, and from the northern uplands in the Casmalia Hills south to San Antonio Creek.Pumpage since the early 1900s and the subsequent groundwater-level declines have substantially reduced the amount of natural groundwater discharge at Barka Slough. Estimates of base flow to San Antonio Creek at the western, downstream extent of the SACVW have varied over time in response to changes in groundwater pumpage and climate; however, there was an overall decline in base flow during water years 1956–2018, decreasing from an average of about 1,700 acre-feet per year during 1956–69, to about 300 acre-feet per year during 2016–18. The long-term extraction of groundwater correlates with a decrease in groundwater levels by more than about 150 feet since the early 1940s in the eastern part of the basin near Los Alamos, and as much as about 50 feet in the upland areas and in the western part of the basin. At Barka Slough, groundwater levels have declined below land surface in some places, altering native riparian vegetation in and around the slough.Surface-water quality in the SACVW...

In the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW), western Santa Barbara County, California, groundwater is the primary source of water for agricultural irrigation, the town of Los Alamos, and supplemental water to Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB). Groundwater pumpage has increased since the 1970s as non-irrigated agricultural land has been converted to irrigated land and as local pumping for municipal use has increased. This increase in groundwater use has resulted in declining groundwater levels, adjustments in surface-water flows and species habitats, and changes in water quality. Water managers are addressing the challenges of meeting this increased demand while maintaining sustainable groundwater supplies. To address these challenges, Santa Barbara County Water Agency, Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) undertook a cooperative study to characterize the integrated hydrologic system of the SACVW and develop tools to better understand and manage the groundwater system. The objectives of this study were to improve the understanding of the integrated hydrologic system and incorporate the understanding into an integrated groundwater and surface-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources in the SACVW.The San Antonio Creek integrated model (SACIM) was developed using the USGS coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model to simulate the hydrologic system of the SACVW and provide annual and average water budgets for 1948–2018 water years. Results from the SACIM indicated that between 1948 and 2018, total groundwater from storage (storage depletion) for the period was 453,300 acre-feet (acre-ft). Agricultural pumpage was the largest discharge and accounted for a total of 1,020,000 acre-ft of groundwater. Increased pumpage since the mid-1980s (of which agricultural pumpage is the primary component) is tied to an increased rate of storage depletion and reduced rates of groundwater evapotranspiration and surface leakage (groundwater discharge to the surface and soil zone). The increased pumpage also reduced subsurface inflow to Barka Slough, resulting in a decline in upward flow through the underlying hydrogeologic units and surface leakage. In addition to quantifying historical changes in the integrated hydrologic system, the SACIM is a tool than can be used by water managers to evaluate the effects of different climatic and hydrologic conditions and management strategies.

Groundwater‐flow models depend on hydraulic head and flux observations for evaluation and calibration. A different type of observation—change in storage measured using repeat microgravity—can also be used for parameter estimation by simulating the expected change in gravity from a groundwater model and including the observation misfit in the objective function. The method is demonstrated using new software linked to MODFLOW input and output files and field data from the vicinity of the All American Canal in southeast California, USA. Over a 10‐year period following lining of the previously highly permeable canal with concrete, gravity decreased by over 100 μGal (equivalent to about 2.5 m of free‐standing water) at some locations as seepage decreased and the remnant groundwater mound dissipated into the aquifer or was removed by groundwater pumping. Simulated gravity from a MODFLOW model closely matched observations, and repeat microgravity data proved useful for constraining both hydraulic conductivity and specific yield estimates. Specific yield estimated using the infinite‐horizontal slab approximation agreed well with model‐derived values, and the departure from the linear, flat‐water‐table approximation was small, less than 2%, despite relatively large and dynamic water‐table slope. First‐order second‐moment parameter uncertainty analysis shows reduction in uncertainty for all hydraulic conductivity and specific yield parameter estimates with the addition of repeat microgravity data, as compared to drawdown data alone.