Yanko Hristozov

National risks constitute an important but still underexplored dimension of sustainable development, particularly in countries exposed to institutional fragility, demographic decline, and geopolitical uncertainty. This study identifies and prioritizes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria’s development over the next decade, with particular attention to their fiscal and macro-financial transmission channels. The analysis is based on a structured expert survey conducted among 82 specialists from academia, business, research institutions, civil society, and public practice. Respondents assessed 32 potential risks according to likelihood and impact using a five-point scale. A combined priority index was constructed as the product of mean likelihood and mean impact scores. The results show that the most significant risks are concentrated around institutional and systemic vulnerabilities, especially distrust in the rule of law, ineffective healthcare, disinformation, corruption, crisis of statehood, demographic decline, and deterioration in education and infrastructure. The findings indicate that these risks affect Bulgaria’s long-term development through five main fiscal and macro-financial channels: higher sovereign risk premia, expenditure pressure, weaker revenue capacity and investment efficiency, labor market deterioration, and broader financial fragility. The study contributes to the literature on sustainability governance, sovereign resilience, and fiscal sustainability by showing that national resilience depends not only on the management of external shocks, but also on the institutional capacity of the state to absorb long-term structural pressures. The practical applicability of the study lies in the possibility and necessity of conducting a content analysis of the main strategic documents for the country’s development in order to establish the extent to which the identified main risks are reflected in them, as conclusions about the situation and as countermeasure policies.

National risks constitute an important but still underexplored dimension of sustainable development, particularly in countries exposed to institutional fragility, demographic decline, and geopolitical uncertainty. This study identifies and prioritizes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria’s development over the next decade, with particular attention to their fiscal and macro-financial transmission channels. The analysis is based on a structured expert survey conducted among 82 specialists from academia, business, research institutions, civil society, and public practice. Respondents assessed 32 poten-tial risks according to likelihood and impact using a five-point scale. The empirical framework combines descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha, the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin test, exploratory factor analysis, Spearman’s rank correlation, and the Kruskal–Wallis test. A combined priority index was constructed as the product of mean likelihood and mean impact scores. The results show that the most significant risks are concentrated around institutional and systemic vulnerabilities, especially distrust in the rule of law, ineffective healthcare, disinformation, corruption, crisis of statehood, demographic de-cline, and deterioration in education and infrastructure. The findings indicate that these risks affect Bulgaria’s long-term development through five main fiscal and mac-ro-financial channels: higher sovereign risk premia, expenditure pressure, weaker revenue capacity and investment efficiency, labor market deterioration, and broader financial fragility. The study contributes to the literature on sustainability governance, sovereign resilience, and fiscal sustainability by showing that national resilience de-pends not only on the management of external shocks, but also on the institutional ca-pacity of the state to absorb long-term structural pressures.

The acceleration of economic, technological, geopolitical and environmental processes has significantly increased the exposure of national economies to interconnected financial and non-financial risks. While global financial risks and corporate risks have been extensively analyzed, significant national risks—such as fiscal sustainability, debt vulnerability, systemic inefficiency and investment uncertainty—are often treated fragmentarily or descriptively within conventional sovereign risk frameworks. This article offers a comparative analytical approach to identifying national financial and non-financial risks by examining the degree of convergence and divergence between risks identified in four different sources: national expert scientific studies, World Economic Forum global risk assessments, strategic development documents of Bulgaria and national media coverage. Using expert data, structured content analysis, a modified media visibility index, and nonparametric statistical tests for linked binary data, the study identifies risks that are consistently recognized across sources and therefore pose an increased threat to financial stability, as well as risks that remain systematically underestimated despite their potential fiscal and macroeconomic consequences. The results show that cross-source comparison significantly improves the detection of national risks and reveals blind spots in fiscal planning, investment, and social policy. This article contributes to the literature on the management of risks with a direct negative financial effect or with an indirect financial impact on the national economy by positioning national risk identification within a governance-oriented, multi-source analytical framework.

The subject of this research is the performance of stocks on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE). The main issue of interest is whether the index price levels are supported by fundamentals or if there is a bubble or undervaluation on the BG stock market. The purpose of this research is to explore the true level of indexes at the BSE, as dictated by fundamentals, and compare it with actual index levels. The research method is based on the comparative analysis of price-earnings ratios (PEs) and price-to-book ratios (PBVs) of the index during the analyzed period. The 2024 PE and PBV of the index are compared with fundamental PE and PBV ratios of the BGBX 40 index, which are derived from the fundamentals, determining the value of stocks in the index. The actual PE and PBV ratios of BGBX 40 look rather low compared with the ones in the leading developed stock markets. At the same time, however, the results of this analysis show that these current PE and PBV ratios are much higher than the benchmark values of the fundamental PE and PBV ratios. In this regard, the current price levels of stocks at the Bulgarian Stock Exchange in 2024 do not seem supported by fundamentals.

Artificial intelligence has become a defining technology for the last decade and possibly the next few. Every day, new and new applications are created based on large language models (LLM), a little hastily called artificial intelligence (AI). This reveals new and new opportunities for their use in various spheres of public life. Public administration, despite its inherent conservatism, is also one such area where AI can be used to enhance its administrative capacity and citizens’ satisfaction with administrative services. The aim of this article is to address the possibilities of using AI in public sector organizations and to reveal the limitations that hinder it. In this sense, the object of the research is the Bulgarian state institutions, and the subject - the application of AI in their work. A study was conducted that shows that the employees in the Bulgarian state administration still do not know the possibilities of AI and how to use it in their work. Abstention is due to both ignorance and lack of regulation about what apps can be used where, as well as fear of possible risks. The report presents the possibilities of using some AI-based applications in the implementation of basic work processes in administrations and justifies the need to introduce strict regulations for this. The author’s hypothesis will defend the claim that the Bulgarian administration does not know well the possibilities of digital transformation and AI, through which their work and efficiency can be improved.

Purpose: The purpose of the present study is to identify prerequisites for business development in the conditions of polycrisis in the EU member states of South-Eastern Europe. In the context of digital transformation and the low-carbon transition, this can have an impact on changing their economic policy. Design/Methodology/Approach: The object of research are selected macroeconomic performance indicators of selected EU member states from Southeast Europe (Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia), which are key their business development. The subject is the determination for the business development in conditions of polycrisis and digital transformation. Methodology is mainly based on descriptive analysis and statistical analysis. The main hypothesis proves the statement that in the conditions of polycrisis in the studied period between 2018 and 2022, the three SEE countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia), underestimate the significance of business development in the field of investments and innovations, reforms and institutional environment, and fiscal policy efficiency. Findings: Identifying key determinants that respond to exogenous shocks in specific regions of the EU may be useful for changing its fiscal policy and also help countries take measures to create the conditions for business development. Also, it can lead to optimization of corporate management and investment processes.

In recent years, financial and economic crises have been observed, which are a consequence of various global problems and phenomena. Despite the experience of 2008, it seems that the enterprises did not learn enough of their lessons and failed to foresee the difficulties for their business and finances. There are not many examples in history that have seen phenomena of superimposing economic and financial crises. In this case, the situation is caused by the pandemic caused by CoviD-19 and the war in Ukraine. The two events have had serious nongarnishing shocks to businesses and enterprise economies. The purpose of the current research is to trace the effects on business in the conditions of overlapping economic crises – in this case, caused by the covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The object of research will be the non-financial enterprises in Bulgaria, and the subject is the analysis of the effects on business as a result of overlapping crises. The aim is to derive and justify the effects and consequences for business in Bulgaria. The aim concerns the claim that the overlapping crises have a negative impact on the finances and economy of the enterprises in Bulgaria. The research was conducted on the basis of a survey among Bulgarian companies from the non-financial sector. The survey is conducted annually at the end of the year, summarizing in December of each year. About 800 companies - members of the Bulgarian Industrial Association take part in it. Their profile is mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, most of them being small.