Borislav Borissov

National risks constitute an important but still underexplored dimension of sustainable development, particularly in countries exposed to institutional fragility, demographic decline, and geopolitical uncertainty. This study identifies and prioritizes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria’s development over the next decade, with particular attention to their fiscal and macro-financial transmission channels. The analysis is based on a structured expert survey conducted among 82 specialists from academia, business, research institutions, civil society, and public practice. Respondents assessed 32 potential risks according to likelihood and impact using a five-point scale. A combined priority index was constructed as the product of mean likelihood and mean impact scores. The results show that the most significant risks are concentrated around institutional and systemic vulnerabilities, especially distrust in the rule of law, ineffective healthcare, disinformation, corruption, crisis of statehood, demographic decline, and deterioration in education and infrastructure. The findings indicate that these risks affect Bulgaria’s long-term development through five main fiscal and macro-financial channels: higher sovereign risk premia, expenditure pressure, weaker revenue capacity and investment efficiency, labor market deterioration, and broader financial fragility. The study contributes to the literature on sustainability governance, sovereign resilience, and fiscal sustainability by showing that national resilience depends not only on the management of external shocks, but also on the institutional capacity of the state to absorb long-term structural pressures. The practical applicability of the study lies in the possibility and necessity of conducting a content analysis of the main strategic documents for the country’s development in order to establish the extent to which the identified main risks are reflected in them, as conclusions about the situation and as countermeasure policies.

National risks constitute an important but still underexplored dimension of sustainable development, particularly in countries exposed to institutional fragility, demographic decline, and geopolitical uncertainty. This study identifies and prioritizes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria’s development over the next decade, with particular attention to their fiscal and macro-financial transmission channels. The analysis is based on a structured expert survey conducted among 82 specialists from academia, business, research institutions, civil society, and public practice. Respondents assessed 32 poten-tial risks according to likelihood and impact using a five-point scale. The empirical framework combines descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha, the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin test, exploratory factor analysis, Spearman’s rank correlation, and the Kruskal–Wallis test. A combined priority index was constructed as the product of mean likelihood and mean impact scores. The results show that the most significant risks are concentrated around institutional and systemic vulnerabilities, especially distrust in the rule of law, ineffective healthcare, disinformation, corruption, crisis of statehood, demographic de-cline, and deterioration in education and infrastructure. The findings indicate that these risks affect Bulgaria’s long-term development through five main fiscal and mac-ro-financial channels: higher sovereign risk premia, expenditure pressure, weaker revenue capacity and investment efficiency, labor market deterioration, and broader financial fragility. The study contributes to the literature on sustainability governance, sovereign resilience, and fiscal sustainability by showing that national resilience de-pends not only on the management of external shocks, but also on the institutional ca-pacity of the state to absorb long-term structural pressures.

The research on organisational ambidexterity, understood as an ability to effectively solve current problems while ensuring long-term strategic development, is relatively recent. Very limited number of studies focus on ambidexterity in public organisations, or if any, it is considered primarily as an outcome rather than a strategy for achieving long-term success. This study aims to assess the organisational ambidexterity of a group of municipalities in two ways: by answering questions posed to municipal representatives and by calculating financial indicators that provide evidence of local governments’ preferences for funding current needs and investments for the future. The results were tested for statistically significant difference using the t-test. It is concluded that it is evident from their responses that municipal officials understand the need to achieve organisational ambidexterity, but the data from the analysis of the financial indicators of the studied municipalities clearly indicate a preference for spending on current needs over spending on investment and development.

The acceleration of economic, technological, geopolitical and environmental processes has significantly increased the exposure of national economies to interconnected financial and non-financial risks. While global financial risks and corporate risks have been extensively analyzed, significant national risks—such as fiscal sustainability, debt vulnerability, systemic inefficiency and investment uncertainty—are often treated fragmentarily or descriptively within conventional sovereign risk frameworks. This article offers a comparative analytical approach to identifying national financial and non-financial risks by examining the degree of convergence and divergence between risks identified in four different sources: national expert scientific studies, World Economic Forum global risk assessments, strategic development documents of Bulgaria and national media coverage. Using expert data, structured content analysis, a modified media visibility index, and nonparametric statistical tests for linked binary data, the study identifies risks that are consistently recognized across sources and therefore pose an increased threat to financial stability, as well as risks that remain systematically underestimated despite their potential fiscal and macroeconomic consequences. The results show that cross-source comparison significantly improves the detection of national risks and reveals blind spots in fiscal planning, investment, and social policy. This article contributes to the literature on the management of risks with a direct negative financial effect or with an indirect financial impact on the national economy by positioning national risk identification within a governance-oriented, multi-source analytical framework.

This study examines the extent and nature of media visibility of the main risks affecting the socio-economic development of Bulgaria. Using the Media Visibility Index (MVI) as an analytical tool, the study assesses how often and with what intensity risk-related topics are covered in the national and regional media. Data from 2024–2025 were analyzed using quantitative and qualitative approaches supported by artificial intelligence processing using ChatGPT-5. The findings show that while Bulgarian media cover most of the significant risks – such as cybersecurity threats, corruption, inflation and political instability – coverage remains largely descriptive rather than analytical. Furthermore, topics such as innovation, aging infrastructure and environmental sustainability are underrepresented. The study highlights the need to improve media independence, strengthen analytical journalism and promote media literacy as key factors for strengthening the democratic capacity of the public sphere. The results of the study can be used to compare media coverage of risks with their presentation in national strategic development documents and the preventive measures outlined therein, as well as to assess the adequate position of the media on the significant problems facing society.

The practice of developing state and municipal budgets in Bulgaria began immediately after the Liberation and reflects both the fiscal traditions of the Ottoman Empire and the desire for modernization and Europeanization of Bulgarian financial policy. Historically, various financial decisions have determined the degree of financial decentralization and the financial powers of local authorities, the role of internal control, the functions of financial specialists, tax policy, budget expenditure priorities, and more. Some of these decisions remain valid today, while others have been abandoned as unsuitable. The article provides a historical review of the budgetary practices of the Third Bulgarian Tsardom and a study of stakeholder attitudes towards key elements of modern budgetary policy. The aim of the article is to use the experience of the past to rethink certain decisions for the improvement of municipal budgetary policy. Questions are raised such as whether municipal councilors should receive remuneration for their work, whether financial decentralization should be expanded and deepened, whether it is necessary to introduce program budgeting at the municipal level, what the main sources of investment funds in municipal budgets should be, and others. The results of the survey show that there are old budget practices that are accepted as appropriate for our times, as well as those that are rejected. The opinions of the of mayors and municipal financial specialists and the review of past practices provide an opportunity to seek suitable solutions for improving the budget process in Bulgarian municipalities.

Delivering good governance to citizens and businesses is a fundamental duty of any public administration. To be able to meet these requirements, public sector organisations must have the necessary administrative capacity. This is reason enough for its level to be monitored, analysed and evaluated. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the study conducted on the level of administrative capacity of the different types of public bodies included in the Administrative Register of the Republic of Bulgaria. They were obtained by surveying both representatives of the administrations themselves and their socio-economic partners. A validated methodology was applied, approbated by scientists in the relevant field and representatives of practice. The results show which groups of administrations have higher capacity and in which areas and which ones are lagging behind. A statistically significant difference was found between the assessments of administrations and those of civil society representatives.

Changes are taking place in Uzbekistan, which are characteristic of countries in transition from a centralized to a market economy. The country is entering a new era of development, which has an impact on the overall economic picture. After the presidential elections in 2016, a policy of reform and openness began to be implemented in Uzbekistan, which has a great impact on the political situation in the entire Central Asian region. According to many observers, the scale of political changes is unprecedented in the development of Central Asian countries since their independence. Unlike Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, reforms in Uzbekistan were not carried out under external pressure, but were voluntary and spontaneous with strong internal motivation. Due to the fact that the country realized that the centralized development model was unable to respond effectively to numerous internal and external challenges, it began to accelerate internal reforms, making successive changes to adapt to new realities. The positions of Uzbekistan in the international rating rankings are improving. Despite the successes achieved, the country’s highly centralized governance model does not allow local communities to be effectively involved in the planning and implementation of local policies for economic development. They are not active enough in identifying their infrastructure needs, in preparing community development plans, in implementing projects to modernize or build drinking water, gas and electricity systems, roads, schools and other basic infrastructure and public services. Underestimating the role of local communities in influencing the economic development of their regions is a restraining factor for economic development. Conversely, realizing the role of business organizations in shaping regional policy for local economic development is a great potential that has not yet been fully exploited. To prove this thesis, the authors conducted a survey of the attitude of business organizations in Uzbekistan to cooperation with local authorities. The results show that business representatives do not particularly rely on local authorities to stimulate the economic development of their cities and regions and, for this reason, do not show a particular desire to cooperate with them. This is a challenge, the overcoming of which can give the country a new impetus in terms of the economic development of the regions and settlements.

The purpose of the article is to show the necessity of developing program-oriented municipal budgets. The view of different authors on the subject is presented, as well as good practices of other countries. The existing practice of developing strategic documents and budgets in Bulgarian municipalities is described. A sociological survey was made of the opinion of business organizations as partners of local authorities, regarding their participation in the budget process and in the development of strategic documents for the development of municipalities. The results show a rather skeptical attitude towards the possibilities of business organizations to influence local policies and the development of budgets. A proposal is made in the national legislation and in the local normative base of the municipalities to establish the requirement for coordination of the strategies, plans and programs developed at the municipal level with the annual budgets. Program budgeting at the municipal level is not only possible, but also imperative, due to its efficiency, transparency, opportunity for wider citizen participation in the budget process and in the development and implementation of local policies.

Artificial intelligence has become a defining technology for the last decade and possibly the next few. Every day, new and new applications are created based on large language models (LLM), a little hastily called artificial intelligence (AI). This reveals new and new opportunities for their use in various spheres of public life. Public administration, despite its inherent conservatism, is also one such area where AI can be used to enhance its administrative capacity and citizens’ satisfaction with administrative services. The aim of this article is to address the possibilities of using AI in public sector organizations and to reveal the limitations that hinder it. In this sense, the object of the research is the Bulgarian state institutions, and the subject - the application of AI in their work. A study was conducted that shows that the employees in the Bulgarian state administration still do not know the possibilities of AI and how to use it in their work. Abstention is due to both ignorance and lack of regulation about what apps can be used where, as well as fear of possible risks. The report presents the possibilities of using some AI-based applications in the implementation of basic work processes in administrations and justifies the need to introduce strict regulations for this. The author’s hypothesis will defend the claim that the Bulgarian administration does not know well the possibilities of digital transformation and AI, through which their work and efficiency can be improved.