Altin Hoti

This study investigated the tourism–economic growth nexus in the United Arab Emirates from 1995 to 2023 using VECM and ARDL models to capture long- and short-run dynamics. Structural breaks in 2008, 2015, and 2020, identified through Zivot–Andrews and Bai–Perron tests, account for major economic transitions associated with the global financial crisis, oil-market adjustment, and the COVID-19 shock. VECM results reveal three long-run cointegrating relationships among economic growth, real tourism receipts, gross capital formation, FDI, and oil rents, with heterogeneous adjustment toward equilibrium. ARDL results confirm a long-run relationship, with tourism receipts, gross capital formation, FDI, and oil rents positively associated with economic growth. Short-run results similarly indicate positive associations across these determinants. However, Granger causality results show that economic growth predicts real tourism receipts, while tourism receipts do not significantly predict economic growth, indicating a growth-led tourism perspective rather than tourism-led predictive causality. Structural-break interventions further demonstrate the importance of major economic shocks in shaping the tourism–growth relationship. The study contributes by integrating VECM, ARDL, Granger causality, and structural-break analysis within a resource-rich and rapidly diversifying Gulf economy. Overall, the findings highlight tourism, investment, FDI, and diversification as interconnected components of sustainable economic growth in the UAE.

This study examines the impact of tourism demand and financial development on economic growth in five Western Balkan countries over the period 2000–2024. International tourist arrivals are used as a proxy for tourism demand, while domestic credit to the private sector represents financial development. Gross capital formation and labour force participation are included as control variables. To investigate the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables, the study employs a panel econometric framework comprising cross-sectional dependence tests, first- and second-generation panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator. The Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimators are also estimated, while the Hausman specification test is used to select the preferred estimator. This study contributes to the tourism–finance–growth literature by providing updated panel evidence for five Western Balkan countries and by simultaneously examining tourism demand and financial development within a comprehensive PMG-ARDL framework. The results reveal significant cross-sectional dependence and confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The Hausman test supports the PMG estimator. The PMG-ARDL results indicate that tourism demand, financial development, gross capital formation, and labour force participation positively and significantly influence economic growth. Furthermore, the error-correction term is negative and significant, indicating that approximately 19.1% of short-run disequilibrium adjusts toward long-run equilibrium annually. The findings support the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis and highlight the importance of tourism development and financial sector expansion in promoting sustainable economic growth in the Western Balkan countries. JEL Classification: O40; Z32

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Understanding residents’ support is essential for the social sustainability of tourism development, particularly in rapidly transforming destinations. Drawing on Social Exchange Theory, Social Identity Theory, and Destination Image Theory, this study proposes a process-oriented model in which perceived economic benefits and environmental concerns influence residents’ Behavioral Intention Support for Tourism through destination image and national identity. Using survey data from 418 young, educated Saudi residents (predominantly undergraduate university students) and structural equation modeling, the findings show that support is driven primarily by indirect pathways rather than direct cost–benefit evaluations. Economic benefits enhance destination image and strengthen national identity, which in turn foster supportive behavioral intentions. Environmental concerns do not directly reduce support; instead, they operate through sustainability-oriented perceptions of destination image and identity. The results extend existing models by showing how young residents’ behavioral intention support for tourism in Saudi Arabia is shaped through a cognitive–identity process in which destination image and national identity translate economic and environmental evaluations into behavioral intention. This framework offers actionable insights for destinations pursuing state-led tourism development.

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of recent oil price fluctuations on stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region from 2019 to 2024, a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and the prolonged Ukrainian crisis. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and an enhanced Multiple Threshold Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (MTNARDL) framework, the study examines whether extreme positive and negative shocks in oil prices, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and gold induce heterogeneous transmission effects on GCC equity indices. The empirical findings show that both extreme positive and negative oil price shocks exert a stronger and more persistent influence on GCC stock markets than fluctuations in global equities, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals. This confirms the dominant role of oil as a key driver of financial dynamics in oil-dependent economies, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty. The main contribution of this study lies in the improvement of the MTNARDL specification, which allows for a clearer identification of tail-risk behavior and asymmetric volatility spillovers. The enhanced model captures multi-threshold nonlinearities more effectively than conventional approaches, offering a robust framework for policymakers and investors to better understand shock transmission mechanisms in hydrocarbon-based markets.

Trade is considered one of the main drivers of a country’s economic growth and development. Therefore, a successful analysis that identifies the bilateral trade flows, their determinants, and the regional integration costs and benefits opens new horizons for international trade perspectives. This study examines the effects of new and existing regional agreements on the international trade patterns of Western Balkan countries based on the Albanian case. In this regard, an extended trade gravity model is applied with a panel data set of trade flows between Albania and 43 of its regional strategic partners during the period of 2008 to 2022. This work considers two different similarity indexes to explain the effect of the economic structures of partner countries on their trade volumes: the relative factor endowment and the absolute factor endowment. The first is used to test the Linder Hypothesis, and the latter is used to test the effect of similarity in economic size between trading partners. Empirical results indicate that the effect of the selected explanatory variables, such as transportation costs, economic size, economic strength, exchange rate, and their relative as well as absolute endowment, is within expectations. Unexpectedly, the domestic economic size and strength are found to be insignificant in explaining the import flows and inversely proportional to the exports of Albania. Finally, it is indicated that trade flows are clearly dependent on traditional ties rather than on new incentives like the Open Balkan, which cannot offer a new regional center of gravity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the gravity of the Open Balkan initiative has been tested for one of the participating countries. The study concludes that while the Open Balkan initiative shows potential, the Berlin Process remains a more reliable path toward EU integration for Albania.

The rapid growth of digital trade has had a profound impact on global economies, revolutionizing trading practices and facilitating trade expansion. The purpose of this paper is to explore the digital partnership between Korea and the European Union (EU) and its implications for their shared agenda in digital trade to theorize the dynamics of digital trade. A case study method is used to explore trade between Korea and the EU with in-depth descriptive analysis. Digital trade-flow statistics were analyzed to develop the case for Korea and EU digital trade and derive implications for both countries. The findings were generalized by discussing the relevant literature and data from other countries to identify the wider implications. The analysis was focused on the areas of information and communication technology and e-commerce. The findings suggest uncovered trade imbalances, such as Korea’s surplus of ICT goods exports and the EU’s dominant position in online trade. There is an influence of supply chain dynamics, specifically the presence of Korean manufacturers’ production units in countries like Vietnam, and the same dynamics have shaped Korea’s actual place in the supply of ICT goods to the European market. While the digital partnership was established to align regulatory frameworks and foster trust, transparency, and harmonization in the digital domain, it has failed to adequately reflect the importance of digital trade. Although both sides are motivated to collaborate on the harmonization of digital trade rules, there have been instances where the partners’ interests diverge. It is concluded that some political and economic factors may hinder the effectiveness of the digital partnership, unless concrete measures that go beyond traditional bilateral policymaking approaches are implemented. It is therefore recommended to emphasize the need to enhance the efficacy of the digital partnership by taking bolder actions to develop digital trade.