An Assessment of Long-term Climate Change on Building Energy in Indonesia

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Abstract
This paper reports modelling outcomes for improvements to building energy performance in Indonesia. Long-term climate effects due to building energy demands including carbon emissions are also considered. The global change assessment model (GCAM) was used to generate the related end-user building energy data, including socioeconomics for urban areas of Indonesia. As a comprehensive study, the total life cycle of carbon in the building sector and the concept of zero-carbon buildings, including energy efficiency, zero-emissions electricity and fuel switching options were considered. Building shell conductance (u-value) of building envelope, floor area ratio (FAR), air conditioner (AC) efficiency, electrical appliances (APLs) efficiency, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) performance and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems were considered as parameters to mitigate carbon emissions under the operational energy category in GCAM. Carbon mitigation associated with the cement production process was considered in the raw material category. Urban population and labour productivity in Indonesia were used as base inputs with projected growth rates to 2050 determined from available literature. Low growth rate ‘LowRate’ and high growth rate ‘HighRate’ were considered as variable inputs for u-value, FAR, AC efficiency, APLs efficiency, and PV capacity factor to model emissions mitigation. The energy consumption of the GSHP was compared to the conventional reverse cycle ACs to identify the potential of the GSHP as a fuel-switching option. Only base input data were used for cement production process parameters without applying any variable inputs. GCAM base scenarios based on input data only (without modifying variable data) for the residential building sector in Indonesia were considered the benchmark for this study. Total potential carbon emissions mitigation was found to be 432 Mt CO2-e for the residential building sector in Indonesia over 2020-2050. It was found that an average of 24% carbon emissions mitigation could be achieved by 2020-30 and 76% in 2031-2050.

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